{
  "schema": "https://ai-atoms.com/schemas/skill-v1.json",
  "type": "skill",
  "id": "skill/forecast",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "name": "forecast",
  "description": "Generate a weighted sales forecast with best/likely/worst scenarios, commit vs. upside breakdown, and gap analysis. Use when preparing a quarterly forecast call, assessing gap-to-quota from a pipeline CSV, deciding which deals to commit vs. call upside, or checking pipeline coverage against your number.",
  "system_prompt_fragment": "# /forecast\n\n> If you see unfamiliar placeholders or need to check which tools are connected, see [CONNECTORS.md](../../CONNECTORS.md).\n\nGenerate a weighted sales forecast with risk analysis and commit recommendations.\n\n## Usage\n\n```\n/forecast [period]\n```\n\nGenerate a forecast for: $ARGUMENTS\n\nIf a file is referenced: @$1\n\n---\n\n## How It Works\n\n```\n┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐\n│                        FORECAST                                  │\n├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤\n│  STANDALONE (always works)                                       │\n│  ✓ Upload CSV export from your CRM                              │\n│  ✓ Or paste/describe your pipeline deals                        │\n│  ✓ Set your quota and timeline                                  │\n│  ✓ Get weighted forecast with stage probabilities               │\n│  ✓ Risk-adjusted projections (best/likely/worst case)           │\n│  ✓ Commit vs. upside breakdown                                  │\n│  ✓ Gap analysis and recommendations                             │\n├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤\n│  SUPERCHARGED (when you connect your tools)                      │\n│  + CRM: Pull pipeline automatically, real-time data             │\n│  + Historical win rates by stage, segment, deal size            │\n│  + Activity signals for risk scoring                            │\n│  + Automatic refresh and tracking over time                     │\n└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘\n```\n\n---\n\n## What I Need From You\n\n### Step 1: Your Pipeline Data\n\n**Option A: Upload a CSV**\nExport your pipeline from your CRM (e.g. Salesforce, HubSpot). I need at minimum:\n- Deal/Opportunity name\n- Amount\n- Stage\n- Close date\n\nHelpful if you have:\n- Owner (if team forecast)\n- Last activity date\n- Created date\n- Account name\n\n**Option B: Paste your deals**\n```\nAcme Corp - $50K - Negotiation - closes Jan 31\nTechStart - $25K - Demo scheduled - closes Feb 15\nBigCo - $100K - Discovery - closes Mar 30\n```\n\n**Option C: Describe your territory**\n\"I have 8 deals in pipeline totaling $400K. Two are in negotiation ($120K), three in evaluation ($180K), three in discovery ($100K).\"\n\n### Step 2: Your Targets\n\n- **Quota**: What's your number? (e.g., \"$500K this quarter\")\n- **Timeline**: When does the period end? (e.g., \"Q1 ends March 31\")\n- **Already closed**: How much have you already booked this period?\n\n---\n\n## Output\n\n```markdown\n# Sales Forecast: [Period]\n\n**Generated:** [Date]\n**Data Source:** [CSV upload / Manual input / CRM]\n\n---\n\n## Summary\n\n| Metric | Value |\n|--------|-------|\n| **Quota** | $[X] |\n| **Closed to Date** | $[X] ([X]% of quota) |\n| **Open Pipeline** | $[X] |\n| **Weighted Forecast** | $[X] |\n| **Gap to Quota** | $[X] |\n| **Coverage Ratio** | [X]x |\n\n---\n\n## Forecast Scenarios\n\n| Scenario | Amount | % of Quota | Assumptions |\n|----------|--------|------------|-------------|\n| **Best Case** | $[X] | [X]% | All deals close as expected |\n| **Likely Case** | $[X] | [X]% | Stage-weighted probabilities |\n| **Worst Case** | $[X] | [X]% | Only commit deals close |\n\n---\n\n## Pipeline by Stage\n\n| Stage | # Deals | Total Value | Probability | Weighted Value |\n|-------|---------|-------------|-------------|----------------|\n| Negotiation | [X] | $[X] | 80% | $[X] |\n| Proposal | [X] | $[X] | 60% | $[X] |\n| Evaluation | [X] | $[X] | 40% | $[X] |\n| Discovery | [X] | $[X] | 20% | $[X] |\n| **Total** | [X] | $[X] | — | $[X] |\n\n---\n\n## Commit vs. Upside\n\n### Commit (High Confidence)\nDeals you'd stake your forecast on:\n\n| Deal | Amount | Stage | Close Date | Why Commit |\n|------|--------|-------|------------|------------|\n| [Deal] | $[X] | [Stage] | [Date] | [Reason] |\n\n**Total Commit:** $[X]\n\n### Upside (Lower Confidence)\nDeals that could close but have risk:\n\n| Deal | Amount | Stage | Close Date | Risk Factor |\n|------|--------|-------|------------|-------------|\n| [Deal] | $[X] | [Stage] | [Date] | [Risk] |\n\n**Total Upside:** $[X]\n\n---\n\n## Risk Flags\n\n| Deal | Amount | Risk | Recommendation |\n|------|--------|------|----------------|\n| [Deal] | $[X] | Close date passed | Update close date or move to lost |\n| [Deal] | $[X] | No activity in 14+ days | Re-engage or downgrade stage |\n| [Deal] | $[X] | Close date this week, still in discovery | Unlikely to close — push out |\n\n---\n\n## Gap Analysis\n\n**To hit quota, you need:** $[X] more\n\n**Options to close the gap:**\n1. **Accelerate [Deal]** — Currently [stage], worth $[X]. If you can close by [date], you're at [X]% of quota.\n2. **Revive [Stalled Deal]** — Last active [date]. Worth $[X]. Reach out to [contact].\n3. **New pipeline needed** — You need $[X] in new opportunities at [X]x coverage to be safe.\n\n---\n\n## Recommendations\n\n1. [ ] [Specific action for highest-impact deal]\n2. [ ] [Action for at-risk deal]\n3. [ ] [Pipeline generation recommendation if gap exists]\n```\n\n---\n\n## Stage Probabilities (Default)\n\nIf you don't provide custom probabilities, I'll use:\n\n| Stage | Default Probability |\n|-------|---------------------|\n| Closed Won | 100% |\n| Negotiation / Contract | 80% |\n| Proposal / Quote | 60% |\n| Evaluation / Demo | 40% |\n| Discovery / Qualification | 20% |\n| Prospecting / Lead | 10% |\n\nTell me if your stages or probabilities are different.\n\n---\n\n## If CRM Connected\n\n- I'll pull your pipeline automatically\n- Use your actual historical win rates\n- Factor in activity recency for risk scoring\n- Track forecast changes over time\n- Compare to previous forecasts\n\n---\n\n## Tips\n\n1. **Be honest about commit** — Only commit deals you'd bet on. Upside is for everything else.\n2. **Update close dates** — Stale close dates kill forecast accuracy. Push out deals that won't close in time.\n3. **Coverage matters** — 3x pipeline coverage is healthy. Below 2x is risky.\n4. **Activity = signal** — Deals with no recent activity are at higher risk than stage suggests.",
  "applicable_domains": [
    "sales",
    "crm"
  ],
  "invocation": [
    "/forecast",
    "/forecast <period>"
  ],
  "tags": [
    "sales",
    "anthropics",
    "knowledge-work"
  ],
  "authored_by": "anthropics",
  "source_url": "https://github.com/anthropics/knowledge-work-plugins/blob/main/sales/skills/forecast/SKILL.md",
  "lifecycle": "stable",
  "category": "sales",
  "provenance": {
    "source": "anthropics/knowledge-work-plugins",
    "source_url": "https://github.com/anthropics/knowledge-work-plugins/blob/main/sales/skills/forecast/SKILL.md",
    "author": "Anthropic",
    "license": "Apache-2.0",
    "notes": "Imported by scripts/import-anthropic-skills.py."
  }
}